This review explores the integration of Artificial Intelligence into Horizon Scanning, focusing on identifying and responding to emerging threats and opportunities linked to Infectious Diseases. We examine how AI tools can enhance signal detection, data monitoring, scenario analysis, and decision support. We also address the risks associated with AI adoption and propose strategies for effective implementation and governance. The findings contribute to the growing body of Foresight literature by demonstrating the potential and limitations of AI in Public Health preparedness.

Stochastic resonance (SR), a phenomenon originally introduced in climate modeling, enhances signal detection by leveraging optimal noise levels within non-linear systems. Traditional SR techniques, mainly based on single-threshold detectors, are limited to signals whose behavior does not depend on time. Often large amounts of noise are needed to detect weak signals, which can distort complex signal characteristics. To address these limitations, this study explores multi-threshold systems and the application of SR in multiscale applications using wavelet transforms. In the multiscale domain signals can be analyzed at different levels of resolution to better understand the underlying dynamics. We propose a double-threshold detection system that integrates two single-threshold detectors to enhance weak signal detection. We evaluate it both in the original data domain and in the multiscale domain using simulated and real-world signals and compare its performance with existing methods. Experimental results demonstrate that, in the original data domain, the proposed double-threshold detector significantly improves weak signal detection compared to conventional single-threshold approaches. Its performance is further improved in the frequency domain, requiring lower noise levels while outperforming existing detection systems. This study advances SR-based detection methodologies by introducing a robust approach to weak signal identification, with potential applications in various disciplines.

Programming Knowledge Tracking (PKT) aims to dynamically diagnose learners' mastery levels of programming knowledge based on their coding activities, facilitating more effective and personalized programming education. However, current PKT studies primarily focus on the implicit relationship between code content and knowledge assessment, often overlooking two types of noise signals in long-term programming activities: unwanted signals from unrelated submissions and weak signals from minor modifications. This practical challenge significantly limits model performance and application. To address this issue, we propose Coda, a Code graph-based tuning adaptor designed to enhance existing PKT models by identifying and mitigating the impact of noise. Specifically, Coda first transforms the loose code sequences submitted by each learner into a compact code graph. By leveraging this code graph, unwanted signals can be identified from a semantic similarity perspective. We then apply a cluster-aware GCN to the code graph, which improves the discrimination of weak signals and enables their clustering for identification. Finally, a lightweight yet effective adaptor is incorporated into the PKT task through optimization with two noise feature-based constraints and a navigational regularization term, to correct knowledge states affected by noise. It is worth mentioning that the Coda framework is model-agnostic and can be adapted to most existing PKT solutions. Extensive experimental results on four real-world datasets demonstrate that Coda effectively performs the PKT task in the presence of noisy programming records, outperforming typical baselines.

The ubiquity of social media platforms facilitates malicious linguistic steganography, posing significant security risks. Steganalysis is profoundly hindered by the challenge of identifying subtle cognitive inconsistencies arising from textual fragmentation and complex dialogue structures, and the difficulty in achieving robust aggregation of multi-dimensional weak signals, especially given extreme steganographic sparsity and sophisticated steganography. These core detection difficulties are compounded by significant data imbalance. This paper introduces GSDFuse, a novel method designed to systematically overcome these obstacles. GSDFuse employs a holistic approach, synergistically integrating hierarchical multi-modal feature engineering to capture diverse signals, strategic data augmentation to address sparsity, adaptive evidence fusion to intelligently aggregate weak signals, and discriminative embedding learning to enhance sensitivity to subtle inconsistencies. Experiments on social media datasets demonstrate GSDFuse's state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance in identifying sophisticated steganography within complex dialogue environments. The source code for GSDFuse is available at https://github.com/NebulaEmmaZh/GSDFuse.

Detecting and tracking emerging trends and weak signals in large, evolving text corpora is vital for applications such as monitoring scientific literature, managing brand reputation, surveilling critical infrastructure and more generally to any kind of text-based event detection. Existing solutions often fail to capture the nuanced context or dynamically track evolving patterns over time. BERTrend, a novel method, addresses these limitations using neural topic modeling in an online setting. It introduces a new metric to quantify topic popularity over time by considering both the number of documents and update frequency. This metric classifies topics as noise, weak, or strong signals, flagging emerging, rapidly growing topics for further investigation. Experimentation on two large real-world datasets demonstrates BERTrend's ability to accurately detect and track meaningful weak signals while filtering out noise, offering a comprehensive solution for monitoring emerging trends in large-scale, evolving text corpora. The method can also be used for retrospective analysis of past events. In addition, the use of Large Language Models together with BERTrend offers efficient means for the interpretability of trends of events.

We introduce RACH-Space, an algorithm for labelling unlabelled data in weakly supervised learning, given incomplete, noisy information about the labels. RACH-Space offers simplicity in implementation without requiring hard assumptions on data or the sources of weak supervision, and is well suited for practical applications where fully labelled data is not available. Our method is built upon a geometrical interpretation of the space spanned by the set of weak signals. We also analyze the theoretical properties underlying the relationship between the convex hulls in this space and the accuracy of our output labels, bridging geometry with machine learning. Empirical results demonstrate that RACH-Space works well in practice and compares favorably to the best existing label models for weakly supervised learning.

In this work, we theoretically investigate the generalization properties of neural networks (NN) trained by stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm with large learning rates. Under such a training regime, our finding is that, the oscillation of the NN weights caused by the large learning rate SGD training turns out to be beneficial to the generalization of the NN, which potentially improves over the same NN trained by SGD with small learning rates that converges more smoothly. In view of this finding, we call such a phenomenon "benign oscillation". Our theory towards demystifying such a phenomenon builds upon the feature learning perspective of deep learning. Specifically, we consider a feature-noise data generation model that consists of (i) weak features which have a small $\ell_2$-norm and appear in each data point; (ii) strong features which have a larger $\ell_2$-norm but only appear in a certain fraction of all data points; and (iii) noise. We prove that NNs trained by oscillating SGD with a large learning rate can effectively learn the weak features in the presence of those strong features. In contrast, NNs trained by SGD with a small learning rate can only learn the strong features but makes little progress in learning the weak features. Consequently, when it comes to the new testing data which consist of only weak features, the NN trained by oscillating SGD with a large learning rate could still make correct predictions consistently, while the NN trained by small learning rate SGD fails. Our theory sheds light on how large learning rate training benefits the generalization of NNs. Experimental results demonstrate our finding on "benign oscillation".

A crucial issue of current text generation models is that they often uncontrollably generate factually inconsistent text with respective of their inputs. Limited by the lack of annotated data, existing works in evaluating factual consistency directly transfer the reasoning ability of models trained on other data-rich upstream tasks like question answering (QA) and natural language inference (NLI) without any further adaptation. As a result, they perform poorly on the real generated text and are biased heavily by their single-source upstream tasks. To alleviate this problem, we propose a weakly supervised framework that aggregates multiple resources to train a precise and efficient factual metric, namely WeCheck. WeCheck first utilizes a generative model to accurately label a real generated sample by aggregating its weak labels, which are inferred from multiple resources. Then, we train the target metric model with the weak supervision while taking noises into consideration. Comprehensive experiments on a variety of tasks demonstrate the strong performance of WeCheck, which achieves a 3.4\% absolute improvement over previous state-of-the-art methods on TRUE benchmark on average.

Supervised learning usually requires a large amount of labelled data. However, attaining ground-truth labels is costly for many tasks. Alternatively, weakly supervised methods learn with cheap weak signals that only approximately label some data. Many existing weakly supervised learning methods learn a deterministic function that estimates labels given the input data and weak signals. In this paper, we develop label learning flows (LLF), a general framework for weakly supervised learning problems. Our method is a generative model based on normalizing flows. The main idea of LLF is to optimize the conditional likelihoods of all possible labelings of the data within a constrained space defined by weak signals. We develop a training method for LLF that trains the conditional flow inversely and avoids estimating the labels. Once a model is trained, we can make predictions with a sampling algorithm. We apply LLF to three weakly supervised learning problems. Experiment results show that our method outperforms many baselines we compare against.

In many applications, training machine learning models involves using large amounts of human-annotated data. Obtaining precise labels for the data is expensive. Instead, training with weak supervision provides a low-cost alternative. We propose a novel weak supervision algorithm that processes noisy labels, i.e., weak signals, while also considering features of the training data to produce accurate labels for training. Our method searches over classifiers of the data representation to find plausible labelings. We call this paradigm data consistent weak supervision. A key facet of our framework is that we are able to estimate labels for data examples low or no coverage from the weak supervision. In addition, we make no assumptions about the joint distribution of the weak signals and true labels of the data. Instead, we use weak signals and the data features to solve a constrained optimization that enforces data consistency among the labels we generate. Empirical evaluation of our method on different datasets shows that it significantly outperforms state-of-the-art weak supervision methods on both text and image classification tasks.